Congressional Budget Office — The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 ↗
Federal outlookBaseline deficits, revenues, outlays, interest, and debt held by the public. Published February 11, 2026.
SOURCES · METHOD
Show the work.
Every major claim is tied to a public source and a date. Projections are scenarios based on law and assumptions—not promises. We separate historical data from current-law projections and label each measure precisely.
Source library
U.S. Treasury — Debt to the Penny ↗
Federal debtDaily gross public debt and its public/intragovernmental components. Used for current-dollar context; projections use CBO’s measure.
Office of Management and Budget — Historical Tables ↗
Historical contextHistorical federal receipts, outlays, deficits, and debt relative to GDP.
Definitions
Deficit
Spending minus revenue during a period, usually one fiscal year.
Debt held by the public
Treasury securities held outside federal government accounts. CBO favors this measure for analyzing economic effects.
Gross federal debt
Debt held by the public plus Treasury securities held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. It is larger than debt held by the public.
Method & caveats
Dollar values are nominal unless noted. Comparisons use federal fiscal years and CBO’s February 2026 current-law baseline. Figures are rounded for readability, so components may not sum precisely.
Forecasts change with legislation, markets, interest rates, inflation, court decisions, and technical updates. A current-law baseline is a reference path, not a prediction of political behavior. The site deliberately avoids a single “collapse date,” per-capita gimmicks, and comparisons that mix debt measures.
Editorial rule: lead with official or independent government sources; distinguish current data from projections; display the source date; explain uncertainty; correct material errors transparently.